Iran Should Evade US Sanctions, Maintain Ties with EU, Russia, China: Analyst

“Given the overwhelming advantage the US and its allies have militarily, Iran must find some way to isolate its economy from US imposed sanctions and effectively combat the ideological/economic war being waged by the US/Saudi/Israel alliance against it. In the end, Iranian officials must find a way to maintain its normal (thus anti-US regime change policy) relations with Europe, Russia and China. If successful, it will have built a diplomatic, economic 'counterweight' against US/Israel/Saudi aggression,” Beau Grosscup, California State University Professor Emeritus of Political Science, told Tasnim.

Following is the full text of the interview.

Tasnim: Late Sunday night, the White House made an announcement that the USS Abraham Lincoln and a bomber task force were being deployed in response to unspecified "troubling and escalatory indications and warnings." What is your take on the deployment?

Grosscup: The military deployment signals a new phase in the effort to demonize the Iranian government as the 'aggressor' in the Middle East. With the diplomatic (end of the nuclear pact) and economic (sanctions, end of oil waivers) components in place, the US is now positioning its military force to 'react' to Iran's alleged, unspecified military provocations. By stressing the military threat to US interests, the Trump Administration is using the time-worn 'Image of the Aggressor' to unify all members of the US political establishment and rally support for the US/Israel/Saudi Arabia alliance plan for war against Iran.

Tasnim: A statement from National Security Adviser John Bolton said the deployments were intended "to send a clear and unmistakable message to Iran that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force." Why do you think Bolton, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the Israeli PM are pushing the US into a war with Iran?

Grosscup: The Trump Administration represents the return to power of the Neoconservative constituency (thought to be discredited by the Iraq War) and their openly acknowledged plan to shape the Middle East to serve US and Israeli interests via regime change. John Bolton is the most aggressive advocate of using the military instrument (principally air power) to achieve this goal. In their view, Iran is the last major bastion of opposition power to their post-Cold War plan.

Tasnim: The deployment of the warship was reportedly based on claims of a possible attack on US forces stationed in the region. So far, there is little detail from the Americans of the alleged Iranian actions that have prompted this warning nor of the specific US deployments under way. It seems that the Trump administration is looking for pretexts to wage war. How do you see this? What is the goal of the administration?

Grosscup: As the world's major military power, the US is in the privileged position of being able to tell the world who the aggressors are and who is not, and give meaning to that distinction without having to provide concrete evidence for their designation. This 'lack of specific detail/evidence of Iranian aggression' is a case in point. Having demonized Iran as the 'aggressor' and 'the cause of all Middle East instability and chaos,' any incident large or small' (especially 'evidence' provided by Israel) depicted as anti-US, Israel, Saudi or even anti-West, such as the threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, is to be laid at the feet of Iran and proof of the need for regime change in Iran. The goal is regime change in Iran, preferably via diplomatic/economic (sovereign) surrender (by domestic revolution) or by a 'reactive' military assault if necessary.

Tasnim: Many critics of the US administration fear a developing drumbeat towards a conflict which, they fear, could erupt either by accident or by design. Iranian state and military officials have repeatedly stressed Iran will never start a war and it will only defend itself. What are your thoughts on this?

Grosscup: Though a formidable military presence, it makes no strategic or tactical sense for Iran to start a military war with the US and its powerful allies. At the same time, as a sovereign state, Iran has the right and responsibility to defend itself. Given the overwhelming advantage the US and its allies have militarily, Iran must find some way to isolate its economy from US imposed sanctions and effectively combat the ideological/economic war being waged by the US/Saudi/Israel alliance against it. In the end, Iranian officials must find a way to maintain its normal (thus anti-US regime change policy) relations with Europe, Russia and China. If successful, it will have built a diplomatic, economic 'counterweight' against US/Israel/Saudi aggression. Whether the US Neo-conservative Trump regime, under Bolton's leadership will allow Iran the time to do so, is the real question.